A deal between Iran and the West, Russia and China on its nuclear programme is due to be unveiled any day now. Both sides will be able to claim victory, without real assurances that Iran’s programme is properly defanged.
There are three likely scenarios for where the world goes from here.
The first and most optimistic is that Iran somehow transforms itself into a less malign state and constructively engages with the family of nations. This could happen organically, with a moderate younger generation gaining power, the passing of hardened elders such as Ayatollah Khamenei, and perhaps some limited changes to the regime. Unfortunately, this is highly unlikely.
The second scenario is that Iran might decide in a few years to “ramp up” and renege